Main Article Content
forecasting, reconstructive surgical procedures, surgeons, workforce, training support
Objectives: Population growth in New Zealand (NZ) has occurred faster than previously forecast. As a result, previous workforce predictions are outdated and must be adjusted to ensure adequate access to plastic and reconstructive surgery (PRS) services. This paper presents an update of the PRS workforce and its projected needs, and the distribution of reconstructive surgeons (PRSn) in NZ.
Methods: The number of practising PRSn and trainees, and the total medical workforce were reviewed, along with population statistics modelling with a focus on the ageing population. Comparisons were made to previous data and forecasts from 2013.
Results: Previous population modelling predicted that NZ would reach five million by 2027. However, updated population data show that this figure was surpassed in 2020 and that the population will be approximately 5,374,655 in 2028. The PRS workforce has continued to grow in relation to overall population growth. The PRSn to population ratio (PRSPR) has improved since 2013 with a current ratio of approximately 1/69,000. However, a vast workforce maldistribution remains.
Conclusion: The overall PRSPR in NZ appears satisfactory for the ageing population. However, the vast workforce maldistribution remains unchanged and this presents a barrier to equitable access to public PRS services, especially in provincial NZ.
2. Statistics New Zealand. Are we there yet? Heading for a population of 5 million [web report]. Wellington: New Zealand Government. [Updated 7 February 2019; cited 2 December 2019]. Available from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/are-we-there-yet-heading-for-a-population-of-5-million.
3. Adams BA, Klassen MF, Tan ST. The future of the New Zealand plastic surgery workforce. NZ Med J. 2013;126(1372):37–46.
4. Statistics New Zealand. Summary of changes to subnational population estimates, at 30 June 2019 (provisional) [web report]. Wellington: New Zealand Government. [Updated 7 October 2019; cited 12 January 2020]. Available from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/methods/summary-of-changes-to-subnational-population-estimates-at-30-june-2019-provisional.
5. Statistics New Zealand. Population estimates tables: subnational population estimates (TA, SA2), by age and sex, at 30 June 1996, 2001, 2006–2013, 2018–2019 (2019 boundaries) [web report]. Wellington: New Zealand Government. [Cited 2 December 2019]. Available from: http://nzdotstat.stats.govt.nz/wbos/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLECODE7512.
6. Australian Society of Plastic Surgeons. Find a surgeon [web page]. Australia: Australian Society of
Plastic Surgeons. [Cited 2 December 2019]. Available from: https://plasticsurgery.org.au/about-us/find-a-surgeon.
7. Population Australia. Population growth of Australia [web report]. Australia: Population Australia. [Cited 1 January 2020]. Available from: http://www.population.net.au.
8. Freshwater MF. Giving thanks: addressing the worldwide plastic surgeon shortage. J Plast Reconstr Aesthet Surg. 2016;69(4):443–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bjps.2015.12.002 PMid:26972283
9. Saariniemi KMM, Kuokkanen HO, Räsänen P, Sintonen H, Tukiainen EJ. The cost utility of reduction mammaplasty at medium-term follow-up: a prospective study. J Plast Reconstr Aesthet Surg. 2012;65(1):17–21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bjps.2011.07.028 PMid:21873127
10. Choi JY, Jung SC, Sykes JM. Clinical outcome and patients’ satisfaction study after otoplasty using hybrid techniques in adult patients. J Craniofac Surg. 2017;28(5):1278–81. https://doi.org/10.1097/SCS.0000000000003744 PMid:28582310
11. Super Seniors. Key statistics: our aging population [web report]. Wellington: Ministry of Social Development. [Cited 2 December 2019]. Available from: http://www.superseniors.msd.govt.nz/about-superseniors/media/key-statistics.html.
12. World Cancer Research Fund. Skin cancer statistics [web report]. London: World Cancer Research Fund International. [Cited 12 December 2020]. Available from: https://www.wcrf.org/dietandcancer/cancer-trends/skin-cancer-statistics.
13. Statistics New Zealand. Population projections overview: subnational population projections. Wellington: New Zealand Government. [Cited 5 December 2019]. Available from: http://archive.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/population/estimates_and_projections/projections-overview/subnat-pop-proj.aspx.
14. Health Workforce New Zealand. Plastic surgery workforce service forecast report Jul–Nov 2013 [web report]. Wellington: New Zealand Government. [Cited 2 February 2020]. Available from: https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/health-workforce/workforce-service-forecasts/plastic-surgery-workforce-service-forecast.